Before you start
Start from the current portfolio state and treat the article as an operating checklist. If a required input is missing, record that gap instead of inventing precision.
Detailed steps
Open Forecast and find the Monte Carlo panel
Start from the screen named in the step and confirm the portfolio in the top bar before you change anything. If the wrong portfolio is selected, switch portfolios first.
Review median, downside and upside paths
Compare the screen against your source before relying on the result. Check name, value, currency, date, ownership, liquidity and whether private data should stay hidden.
Compare the probability range with liquidity and goal sections
Use this step to turn loose information into a clear portfolio record. If you are missing an input, note the gap instead of guessing.
Use stress tests to challenge optimistic paths
Use the option named in the step only when it matches your source. If the source is weaker than the label suggests, record the uncertainty instead of making the value look more precise.
Field guide
The label you and your advisors will recognize.
Match source documents where possible.Current portfolio value.
Use current value, not purchase price, unless cost is the only defensible estimate.Native currency of the asset or liability.
Do not change currency to force a base-currency display.When the value was last reviewed.
Missing dates create stale-data risk.Why the value is credible.
Use imported, market, appraisal, manager mark or internal estimate honestly.Decision rules
What it adds
- Shows range of possible outcomes instead of one straight-line forecast.
- Helps you understand uncertainty.
What it does not do
- Monte Carlo assumptions can be wrong.
- The model is not a guarantee or investment advice.
Common mistakes
What to check
- Do not quote one percentile as a promise.
- Check whether inputs reflect current holdings and debts.
Entering a clean-looking value without recording where it came from.
Ignoring currency, ownership percentage or valuation date because the total appears reasonable.
Using ordinary notes for private access information.
Assuming Read Monte Carlo Forecast produces advice, verification or execution beyond the workflow described here.
After you save
- Return to Net Worth and confirm totals changed as expected.
- Open Capital Review to see whether the record created, resolved or changed any review item.
- Check whether the record should affect Forecast, Investment Plan, exports or share links.
- Revisit this pro guide when source evidence changes.