Before you start
Use Forecast after your balance sheet is credible enough to model. Forecast helps you see whether current cash, debts, liquidity, locked assets and plan assumptions can support the future path you are testing. Treat it as a scenario tool, not a prediction or guarantee.
Detailed steps
Open Forecast and start with Current Situation
Open Forecast from the left navigation and begin on Current Situation. Read this before you open charts or plan comparisons. Current Situation shows what happens if the visible portfolio continues with the saved records and assumptions that are active right now.
Read the headline, target, reserve and visible balance-sheet metrics
Start with the headline result, then check target, reserve, Monte Carlo probability, net worth, cash, liquid assets, investable assets, locked/private assets, debt and liquidity runway. A portfolio can have high net worth and still have a cash problem if most value is locked or debt service is heavy.
Review decision inputs before changing assumptions
Decision inputs such as inflation, monthly spending, emergency reserve, goal horizon and target net worth update the forecast immediately. Change them only when they better represent reality. Do not tune assumptions until the outcome looks comfortable.
Read probability view and access profile together
Probability view shows downside, middle and upside paths. Access profile shows how much value is cash, near-term liquidity or locked/private capital. Read both together. A positive long-term path does not solve a near-term reserve shortfall if accessible cash runs out first.
Review goals, tax and debt strategy, stress tests and cash-flow bridge
Scroll through the lower sections when you need to understand why the forecast is fragile. Goals show milestone status. Tax and debt strategy shows drag, payoff pressure and debt context. Stress tests show shocks such as inflation, income loss, property drawdown, rate shock or unexpected expense. Cash-flow bridge explains how cash moves over time.
Open Cash Forecast to see when cash may fall below reserve
Use Cash Forecast when the timing of cash pressure matters. Read the shortfall month, current cash, reserve floor, fix needed and decision checks. If Forecast says cash runs out, open Cash, Debts and spending assumptions before assuming the model is wrong.
Open Charts to compare the current path with saved plan scenarios
Use Charts when you need a visual comparison between staying as-is and a saved Investment Plan scenario. If there is no active plan, Charts can only show the current situation. Create or save a plan first when you need a real comparison.
Open Investment Plan inside Forecast when a plan should be created or compared
Use the Investment Plan tab to confirm whether Forecast has an active plan scenario. If no plan exists, create one only when you have a real investable budget and constraints. Forecast should compare deliberate plans, not placeholder assumptions.
Field guide
The main summary of where the current path ends or fails.
Read it with the date and cash context, not as a standalone verdict.The goal amount Forecast is testing over the selected horizon.
Use a target that reflects your objective rather than an arbitrary round number.Minimum cash cushion the model tries to preserve.
Set it from real cash needs, debt service and emergency requirements.Probability-style range based on simplified assumptions.
Use it to understand uncertainty, not to promise an outcome.Spendable balance before new plan transfers.
Check Cash records when this number looks too high or too low.Marketable or cash-like assets treated as accessible within roughly one month.
Confirm liquidity labels before relying on access.Value not treated as near-term liquidity.
Real estate, private holdings and protected assets may not help a cash shortage quickly.Outstanding liabilities included in amortization or drift.
Update balances, payments, rate type and maturity before relying on debt projections.How long cash stays above the reserve target.
Use this before treating surplus cash as investable.A time-focused view of cash pressure.
Use it when the month of shortfall matters more than the 30-year endpoint.Decision rules
What it adds
- Shows whether a capital decision fits future cash needs.
- Connects investment planning with debt and liquidity.
- Highlights when a plan may be too aggressive for the owner's runway.
What it does not do
- Forecasts are scenarios, not predictions.
- Taxes, private asset exits and spending shocks may require manual assumptions.
- Monte Carlo and stress outputs depend on simplified assumptions.
Common mistakes
What to check
- Do not treat a favorable projection as certainty.
- Update liabilities and cash before making a major decision.
- Stress test plans that reduce liquidity or increase illiquid exposure.
Treating Forecast as a prediction instead of a scenario model.
Changing inflation, spending, reserve or horizon until the result looks better.
Ignoring a cash shortfall because net worth is still high.
Assuming locked real estate, private investments or Held Away assets can solve immediate liquidity needs.
Comparing charts without creating a saved Investment Plan scenario first.
Relying on Forecast while cash, debt payments or major private values are stale.
Reading the optimistic path without checking downside, stress tests and cash runway.
After you save
- Open Cash when Forecast cash does not match the real balance.
- Open Debts when payment, maturity or rate assumptions look wrong.
- Open Assets when locked/private or liquidity tiers look inaccurate.
- Open Capital Review when Forecast exposes stale values, concentration or liquidity issues.
- Create an Investment Plan only when you have a real investable budget and constraints.
- Revisit Forecast after large deposits, withdrawals, debt changes, valuation updates or plan changes.